French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to name a new French prime minister in a critical effort to restore stability following a period of political turbulence. The announcement, expected later today, comes after Macron cut short his visit to Poland, signaling the urgency of the situation.
This move follows the ousting of Michel Barnier as French prime minister just eight days ago after a no-confidence vote in the French parliament. The decision left France grappling with uncertainty, with 61% of French voters expressing concern about the political climate, according to a BFMTV poll.
Macron’s Commitment to Stability
Two years into his second term, Macron has pledged to serve out his presidency until 2027 with a government resilient enough to withstand political challenges. The removal of Barnier, a former Brexit negotiator, was triggered by opposition to his plans for €60 billion in tax cuts and spending increases aimed at reducing France’s budget deficit, projected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year.
Macron has engaged in extensive discussions with leaders from major political parties, excluding the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) and the far-right National Rally. His goal is to establish a government capable of overcoming the gridlock that has defined the current political landscape.
Potential Successors to Barnier
Among the frontrunners to replace Barnier are François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem party; Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu; and former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve. Macron is reportedly considering a coalition strategy, potentially including parties from the center-left or negotiating a non-aggression pact to avoid future no-confidence votes.
However, challenges remain. Leaders of the Socialist, Green, and Communist parties have made it clear they will only support a government led by a leftist prime minister aligned with their policies. This stance complicates Macron’s efforts to form a broad-based coalition.
The Fallout of Political Stalemate
The current instability stems from snap parliamentary elections Macron called over the summer, following disappointing results in the EU elections. The elections resulted in a fragmented parliament dominated by three major blocs: the left, the center, and the far-right.
Initially, Macron appointed Barnier to lead a minority government reliant on Marine Le Pen’s National Rally for support. However, Le Pen withdrew her backing, aligning with left-wing MPs in the no-confidence vote that led to Barnier’s downfall. Le Pen has since urged the new government to prioritize policies addressing the cost of living.
Coalition Negotiations Underway
As negotiations progress, the Greens, Socialists, and Communists have distanced themselves from the more radical LFI, opting to engage with Macron in talks about forming a new government. However, divisions within the left persist, with Green Party leader Marine Tondelier opposing centrist candidates like François Bayrou and even Socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, citing policy and ideological differences.
LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has criticized his former allies for engaging with Macron, further straining relationships within the leftist bloc. Despite this, Socialist leader Olivier Faure dismissed Mélenchon’s objections, emphasizing the need for practical solutions over rhetoric.
Next Steps for the Macron Administration
Macron’s immediate priority is to secure a stable government capable of passing the 2025 budget, as the caretaker government has only proposed interim measures for 2024. The choice of the new prime minister will be pivotal in determining whether Macron can navigate these challenges and restore political stability in France.
As the nation awaits the announcement, the stakes remain high, with the future direction of French politics hanging in the balance.